A recent Reuters article dated July 22, 2025, titled “Official India jobless data is not accurate, say top independent economists”, has drawn sharp criticism from the Indian government and statistical experts.
The article, based on a perception-driven poll of 50 unnamed economists, claims that India’s official unemployment rate—reported at 5.6% in June—is significantly understated, with some experts suggesting the real figure could be twice as high.
The Ministry of Labour and Employment, along with the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), has issued a detailed rebuttal, asserting that the Reuters report lacks statistical rigor and relies on unverifiable opinions rather than empirical data.
PLFS: India’s Official Labour Survey Framework
Central to the government’s rebuttal is the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
The PLFS is a large-scale, stratified, multi-stage random sampling survey that covers both urban and rural regions.
It uses Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews (CAPI) to enhance data quality and reduce errors.
The PLFS methodology aligns with international standards, including definitions prescribed by the International Labour Organization (ILO).
It provides estimates under both Usual Principal Status (UPS) and Current Weekly Status (CWS), enabling nuanced insights into employment trends.
The data is used by global institutions such as the World Bank, UNDP, and ILOstat, underscoring its credibility.
Employment Trends Show Positive Momentum Rebutting Jobless India
Contrary to the Reuters narrative, official PLFS data indicates a steady improvement in India’s labour market:
- Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for individuals aged 15+ rose from 49.8% in 2017–18 to 60.1% in 2023–24
- Worker Population Ratio (WPR) increased from 46.8% to 58.2% over the same period
- Unemployment Rate (UR) declined from 6.0% to 3.2%
- Youth unemployment dropped from 17.8% to 10.2%, below the global average of 13.3% as per ILO’s 2024 outlook
These indicators suggest stronger workforce absorption and contradict claims of widespread underemployment.
Methodological Concerns with Reuters Jobless Poll
The government has flagged several issues with the Reuters article:
- Lack of transparency: The poll does not disclose the identities or affiliations of the economists surveyed
- Selection bias: No clarity on how respondents were chosen or whether they represent a balanced cross-section
- Absence of empirical validation: The article does not reference any independent datasets or replicable methodologies
- Subjective interpretations: Assertions about underemployment and job quality are anecdotal and not backed by structured analysis
The Ministry emphasized that while expert opinion can offer perspective, it cannot substitute for statistically sound, representative surveys.
Broader Implications and Policy Context
The rebuttal also highlights India’s ongoing efforts to improve labour market transparency.
Since January 2025, the PLFS has begun releasing monthly estimates, allowing for more granular tracking of employment trends.
The government argues that such initiatives reflect a commitment to data-driven policymaking and inclusive workforce development.
While acknowledging structural challenges—such as wage stagnation and gender disparities—the government maintains that these issues are being addressed through targeted schemes and industrial policy reforms.
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