Impact? It is all probable; no direct or indirect correlation would be justifiable at this juncture. The projection frames that the United States might tip into recession. India is at a phase where the emphasis is on moderating policies around inflation control which help will hold India at a considerably better level than other countries to glide through this challenging phase of projected Global recession.
Despite Global economic challenges, India has witnessed a substantial transformation in terms of infrastructure development and an upsurge in export capacity. India has readied itself sufficiently to be future-ready and uphold in the worst scenarios through its aligned and developmental strategies.
History shows that India has benefitted in some way after every US slump. The downfall in commodity prices (July 2022: crude was down 30 percent; aluminum by 36 percent, copper by 21 percent, and steel by 19 percent) and the significant reversion of powerful foreign outflows have helped the Indian rupee gain. Many developed, technologically, and economically evolved countries are facing substantial challenges in regaining swiftness and pace post the Covid-19 and war crises. It will aggravate further if the war continues; unfortunately, it will remain linear in correlation and impact.
Knowing that as of now it’s all notional and applied, it’s too early to state the actual impact on the Indian Job market as the heightened predictions of AI surpassing humans in all capacities phases in and out based on the current situation. Not enunciating that we all should wait and watch for the day, but at the same time, it’s way too opaque to define or redefine all initiatives and strategies at a go.
For that matter, talking about the IMPACT, which is Intuitive (at this stage), Probable, Anticipated, and Concerning but Time-based perspectives, we have to wait for the day when we know what happens next. As they say, we see it when we see it.
The Indian job market is stable and looks like it will survive the crisis well. If we look at the data points, it’s evident that offshore contract activities are still exhibiting upward growth. Let’s look at the investments in leased places, infra, resources, and talent management; it’s humungous and indicates that Organizations are pepping up for the work they have already obtained or the robust pipeline they foresee.
The most challenging aspect of the story is the lack of control; not everything relies on the willingness to fight and manage but on factors that sometimes are beyond the preview of predictability. Pressure from commodity and wage inflation, reduced consumer spending power, Raised interest rates, and the slowdown in the power market will define the ability and capacity.
In view of the fact that India is a part of the global realm and has been significantly participating and contributing in all possible ways, India can’t remain immune to a slowdown in the worldwide economy. In my opinion, here are the top three data-driven factors on how the Indian job market will get impacted:
1- Stabilized and Improved Job Demand in Various Sectors
Job demand in multiple sectors is steady and improving. Specific industries, including, BFSI, and Chemicals, are still hiring people. Organizations will continue to work towards staying relevant through sustainable models by taking care of future skillsets, compensation, and a robust, proactive approach.
A report by Genius Consultants has found that the number of available jobs will stay the same. A few service lines may be off because of a global slowdown. According to the report, 72 percent of corporates believed vacancies would open up for new positions, while 18 percent indicated substitute hiring.
The numbers show that hiring trends will remain stable and steady as enough work flows in; the rate card may get impacted in a few service lines because of the global slowdown.
2- Profitability Under Pressure
A slowdown in the west, how the Indian economy is structured, and its dependency on more developed economies will impact its profitability. There will be clear signs of stagflation. Organizations will resort to Pyramiding to shield their margins. Leaders will continue to identify pockets that will fetch more orders.
3- Employee Retention Becoming a More Significant Challenge
Employee retention will evolve as a bigger concern for organizations. With wage concerns, performers won’t stick to the same organization as the competitive market will stay open, in a much more expansive pattern than now.
As India is proactively reading the changes and preparing for the most unpredictable, it has the capability, resources, and power to stay unmoving and robust. The Deloitte reports state India will grow by 7.1%–7.6% from FY22–23 to FY23–24 and will continue to be the world’s fastest-growing economy over the next few years, reigning even as mature economies brace for a possible recession. With India’s inflation rates and readiness, the economy may still be climbing out of recession, if any.
Looking at the current scenario and the probable crisis, I believe that:
The Indian economy and the job market may get strongly impacted and face STAGFLATION but not STAGNATION.
